Reports
- 11.03.10
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New Coalition and Government. "Stability+Reforms"
In a blitzkrieg political morning, Ukraine’s parliament has formed a new coalition named “Stability and Reforms,” appointed Mykola Azarov Prime Minister and approved a new Cabinet of Ministers. In anticipation of the new coalition and government, this week’s market reaction has been strong: equities are up over 4.5%, sovereign Eurobond yields have dropped to 7.1%-8.9%, and 5yr Ukraine CDS are trading at 19-month lows at 755bpts... - 02.03.10
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Bank of Georgia 4Q and FY09 results
In line with management’s financial guidance issued in mid-4Q09, Bank of Georgia (BGEO LI) reported a 4Q net loss of US$ 61mn after a 9M09 profit of US$ 2mn, and posted a corresponding FY09 loss of US$ 59mn. However, the quarterly loss was largely due to US$ 64mn in non-recurring costs. Given the completed write-downs and sufficient end-2009 loss reserves, the bank is set to start 2010 on a positive note. Below we provide a summary of Bank of Georgia’s financials as well as management’s call with investors held last Friday... - 23.02.10
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Avdiyivka Coke. Bargain-priced coke
With local metals and mining stocks up 23-40% YTD, Avdiyivka Coke’s more moderate 7% rise implies room for double-digit share price growth in the short-term. The stock is the sector’s best investment opportunity in our view owing to Avdiyivka’s robust potential to boost output and improve financials already in 2010. The company’s 33% YTD coke price increase and expected above-sector output growth in 2010 have not yet been priced in by the market... - 17.02.10
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Banking sector 2009 results. Deadweight dropped
Ukraine’s banking sector posted a US$ 4.0bn FY09 net loss vs. a net profit of US$ 1.4bn in 2008. Higher loan impairment charges (up 85% y/y to US$ 8.5bn) were the key drivers behind the sector’s ample loss. We expect most banks will scale back loan loss provisioning and the sector will turn marginally profitable this year... - 12.02.10
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2010 Presidential Elections: Next move, parliament
Yanukovych holds a preliminary 3.5ppt margin of victory in last Sunday’s presidential vote, and we concur with the consensus view that Tymoshenko’s calls to overturn the vote are unlikely to succeed. We continue to see a higher chance of a snap parliamentary vote in the near term. Our top sector picks remain in play, notably Akhmetov-related Steel/Coke names, as well as Utilities...
