Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada yesterday approved a bill allowing the formation of parliamentary coalitions to include individual MPs, not only factions. The Party of Regions, Lytvyn Bloc, and Communists voted in full (218 in favour) along with 13 MPs from the Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defence and BYuT factions and 4 independent MPs. Assuming the bill is signed into law by President Yanukovych, the BYuT-led opposition is expected to appeal its constitutionality in court. Later in the day after meeting with Yanukovych, Serhiy Tihipko and Arseniy Yatseniuk (3rd and 4th, respectively, in January’s presidential election) signalled their disagreement with the proposed legislation, and positioned themselves in the opposition and in favour of pre-term parliamentary elections.

Danylo Spolsky: On balance, a parliamentary coalition created via factions and single MPs is likely bring short-term stability by allowing the quick formation of a coalition (Party of Regions-Lytvyn Bloc-Communists and individual MPs) and a new Cabinet of Ministers, both of which are seen as prerequisites for Ukraine’s return to effective policymaking. In the long-term, however, the new regulations may create fragile house politics. Given Ukraine’s Constitutional Court last year already ruled that the formation of a coalition with the help of single MPs is anti-constitutional, we expect the court will issue a similar ruling if challenged. In that case, the potential new coalition is likely to be invalidated, opening the way for pre-term parliamentary elections by YE10.