With 94% of votes tallied (as of 9.15am), the preliminary count from yesterday’s run-off presidential election shows opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych (48.3%) leading current PM Yulia Tymoshenko (46.1%) at a gap of 2.2ppts. A further 4.5% was cast against both candidates. Yanukovych last night claimed the victory, while Tymoshenko had yet to acknowledge the results.

BG Capital: Firstly, we believe any potential court challenge of the results by Tymoshenko will be unsuccessful, and the transfer of presidential power relatively clean. We believe a pro-Yanukovych de facto parliamentary coalition is set to dismiss the Tymoshenko government shortly, and activate negotiations with parliamentary deputies to create a formal coalition. After dismissing the government, Yanukovych and the Party of Regions would then have a minimum 60 days to complete talks and approve a fresh government, after which Yanukovych would be given the right to call elections to parliament. As we wrote in mid-January (Presidential Elections 2010: Bets and Stakes), we believe the ability of the Party of Regions to consolidate a formal (and working) new coalition is limited, and we continue to believe the likeliest development is an early parliamentary election, to be held at the earliest in May. The opposite scenario, less likely in our view, would see outgoing President Yushchenko as prime minister, with a house coalition involving the pro-Yushchenko Our Ukraine wing.